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NC8Q > PROPAG 28.03.00 21:53l 80 Lines 3441 Bytes #-9603 (0) @ WW
BID : 2494_NC8Q
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Subj: ARLP012 Propagation de K7VVV
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Sent: 000324/2118 @:NC8Q.#DAY.OH.USA.NOAM [Dayton] #:2494 $:2494_NC8Q
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12 ARLP012
>From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA March 24, 2000
To all radio amateurs
Spring is here, and ten and twelve meters are the place to be. A
high solar flux and shifting seasons are again producing conditions
where low power mobiles can work the world on the highest HF bands.
Last year at this time, the average solar flux for the week was
147.5. This week it was 207.8, much higher, and almost 13 points
higher than last week's average. A steady upward recent trend can
be seen in the graph at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/.
Geomagnetic indices have been quite low, but this should change.
Active conditions are predicted for the next few days due to
recurring coronal holes and some recent flare activity. A large
coronal hole that has been returning for several months has split
into three groups, and one of them crosses the sun's equator and is
well positioned for disturbing radio conditions here on earth.
Weekend Conditions for the CQ Worldwide WPX Phone Contest could be
stormy. The predicted planetary A index for the next five days,
Friday through Tuesday, is 25, 30, 20, 10 and 10, so it looks like
the best contest conditions may be on Sunday. On March 31 and
April 1 conditions may be unsettled or active again, but should be
quiet until April 18. Solar flux predicted for the next five days
is 230, 240, 245, 245 and 235. Flux values are expected to bottom
out around 185 on April 12 or 13, then peak near 250 around April
22 or 23.
The High-Energy Solar Spectrograph Imager mission was set back at
least six months when the satellite was mistakenly vibrated too
hard in a test on a shake table at the Jet Propulsion Lab. The
deployment of the satellite, which is designed to observe solar
flares in their most energetic wavelengths, was expected to
coincide with the solar maximum this year. You can read about the
accident at http://www.msnbc.com/news/386019.asp?0a=23232C5- and
about the HESSI mission itself at the NASA web site
http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/hessi/index.html and at a University
of California site, http://hessi.ssl.berkeley.edu/.
Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22 were 138, 152, 142, 208,
240, 191 and 212 with a mean of 183.3. 10.7 cm flux was 184.4,
192.4, 194.8, 208.2, 210.3, 230.5 and 233.8, with a mean of 207.8,
and estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 7, 8, 8, 6 and 11,
with a mean of 7.1.
The path projections for this contest weekend are from Charlotte,
North Carolina.
To Western Europe, 80 meters 2330-0700 UTC, 40 meters 2230-0800
UTC, 20 meters 2030-0530 UTC, 15 meters 1200-2300 UTC, 10 meters
1530-2100 UTC.
To Southern Africa, 80 meters 2300-0430 UTC, 40 meters 2300-0500
UTC, 20 meters 2130-0600 UTC, 15 meters 2100-0230 UTC, 10 meters
2000-0000 UTC.
To South America, 80 meters 2330-1000 UTC, 40 meters 2300-1030 UTC,
20 meters 2200-1100 UTC, 15 meters 1030-1330 UTC and 2000-0700 UTC,
10 meters 1200-0300 UTC.
To the Caribbean, 80 meters 2300-1100 UTC, 40 meters 2000-1330 UTC,
20 meters open all hours, best 2330-0900 UTC, weakest 1500-1900
UTC, 15 meters 1200-0230 UTC, 10 meters 1400-2300 UTC.
To Australia, 80 meters 0900-1200 UTC, 40 meters 0830-1230 UTC, 20
meters 0800-1300 UTC, 15 meters 1300-1500 UTC, 10 meters possibly
1400-1500 UTC or 0200-0300 UTC.
To Japan, 80 meters 0900-1100 UTC, 40 meters 0830-1200 UTC, 20
meters 0800-1300 UTC, 15 meters 2000-0130 UTC, 10 meters 2130-0030
UTC.
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