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AL7MI > PROPAG 23.05.96 15:48l 96 Lines 3885 Bytes #-11009 (0) @ WW
BID : 20612_KA6EYH
Read: GUEST
Subj: HF Propagation May 14
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Sent: 960514/0813Z @:KA6EYH.#NOCAL.CA.USA.NA #:20612 [Pacifica] $:20612_KA6EYH
From: AL7MI@KA6EYH.#NOCAL.CA.USA.NA
To : PROPAG@ALLUS
Bulletin downloaded via anonymous FTP from ftp.sel.noaa.gov
(132.163.224.101)
*--<< AL7MI - University of Alaska Fairbanks >>--*
73 de Michael
AX25: AL7MI @KA6EYH.#NOCAL.CA.USA.NOAM
Internet: fbdx@aurora.alaska.edu
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Air Force
and the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
SUBJ: HF RADIO PROPAGATION REPORT
JOINT USAF/NOAA BULLETIN PREPARED AT THE 50TH WEATHER SQUADRON,
FALCON AFB, COLORADO.
PRIMARY HF RADIO PROPAGATION REPORT ISSUED AT 14/0500Z MAY 96.
PART I. SUMMARY 14/0000Z TO 14/0600Z MAY 96.
FORECAST 14/0600Z TO 14/1200Z MAY 96.
QUADRANT
I II III IV
0 TO 90W 90W TO 180 180 TO 90E 90E TO 0
REGION POLAR N5 N5 N5 N5
AURORAL N4 N4 N5 N5
MIDDLE N6 N6 N6 N6
LOW N7 N7 N7 N7
EQUATORIAL N7 N7 N7 N7
PART II.
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF HF RADIO PROPAGATION CONDITIONS
OBSERVED DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 13/2400Z, AND FORECAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROPAGATIONS WERE NORMAL.
FORECAST: EXPECT PROPAGATIONS TO REMAIN NORMAL.
PART III. SUMMARY OF SOLAR FLARE INDUCED IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES
WHICH MAY HAVE CAUSED SHORT WAVE FADES IN THE SUNLIT HEMISPHERE
DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 13/1400Z MAY 96 . . .NONE.
PROBABILITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS . . . . NIL.
PART IV. OBSERVED/FORECAST 10.7 CM FLUX AND K/AP.
THE OBSERVED 10.7 CM FLUX FOR 13 MAY 96 WAS 72.
THE FORECAST 10.7 CM FLUX FOR 14, 15, AND 16 MAY 96
ARE 72, 72, AND 72.
THE OBSERVED K/AP VALUE FOR 13 MAY 96 WAS 03/14.
THE FORECAST K/AP VALUES FOR 14, 15, AND 16 MAY 96
ARE 03/12, 03/15, AND 03/15.
SATELLITE X-RAY BACKGROUND: A2.3 (2.3 E MINUS 05 ERGS/CM SQ/SEC).
THE EFFECTIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 13 MAY 96 WAS 15.5.
==============================================================================
27 DAY 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX FORECAST PREPARED 13 MAY 96
THE FLUX ON 13 MAY 96 WAS 72. THE 90-DAY MEAN FLUX WAS 71.
10 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX GRAPH
OBSERVED FLUX VERSUS TIME /L'LAST 27 DAYS/
APR 16 20 25 30 5 10 12 MAY
. X . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . X .
78.
77. L
76. P P P P P
75. P P P P P P
74. L P P P L L
73. . . . . . . . . . . P P . . . . . . . . . . . . . L . MEAN
72. L P P P P L
71. P P P P P B L B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B
70. L L L
69. L L
68. L L L L L L
67. L L L L P
66. . . . . . P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M10PCT
65.
. X . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . X .
MAY 14 18 23 28 2 7 9 JUN
PREDICTED FLUX VERSUS TIME /P'PREDICTION B'FBAR/
P20PCT' 88 P10PCT' 80 MEAN ' 73 M10PCT' 66 M20PCT' 58
27 DAYS
DATE FLUX F BAR AGO
14 MAY 71 71 69
15 MAY 71 71 70
16 MAY 71 71 70
17 MAY 71 71 71
18 MAY 71 71 74
19 MAY 66 71 72
20 MAY 72 71 71
21 MAY 72 71 68
22 MAY 72 71 67
23 MAY 72 71 68
24 MAY 73 71 68
25 MAY 73 71 67
26 MAY 74 71 68
27 MAY 74 71 68
28 MAY 74 71 67
29 MAY 75 71 67
30 MAY 75 71 68
31 MAY 75 71 69
1 JUN 75 71 70
2 JUN 75 71 74
3 JUN 76 71 74
4 JUN 76 71 76
5 JUN 76 71 76
6 JUN 76 71 77
7 JUN 76 71 76
8 JUN 75 71 73
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