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AL7MI  > PROPAG   23.05.96 15:48l 96 Lines 3885 Bytes #-11009 (0) @ WW
BID : 20612_KA6EYH
Read: GUEST
Subj: HF Propagation May 14
Path: DB0AAB<DB0KCP<OE9XPI<HB9EAS<HB9PD<HB9IAP<F6BIG<F5KPO<F5KAT<EA3RGI<
      EA3RAC<EA3GJL<KA6EYH
Sent: 960514/0813Z @:KA6EYH.#NOCAL.CA.USA.NA #:20612 [Pacifica] $:20612_KA6EYH
From: AL7MI@KA6EYH.#NOCAL.CA.USA.NA
To  : PROPAG@ALLUS

Bulletin downloaded via anonymous FTP from ftp.sel.noaa.gov
(132.163.224.101)
*--<< AL7MI - University of Alaska Fairbanks >>--*
73 de Michael
AX25: AL7MI @KA6EYH.#NOCAL.CA.USA.NOAM
Internet: fbdx@aurora.alaska.edu
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Air Force
and the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
SUBJ: HF RADIO PROPAGATION REPORT
JOINT USAF/NOAA BULLETIN PREPARED AT THE 50TH WEATHER SQUADRON,
FALCON AFB, COLORADO.
PRIMARY HF RADIO PROPAGATION REPORT ISSUED AT 14/0500Z MAY 96.
PART I. SUMMARY  14/0000Z TO 14/0600Z MAY 96.
FORECAST 14/0600Z TO 14/1200Z MAY 96.
QUADRANT
I         II         III         IV
0 TO 90W  90W TO 180  180 TO 90E  90E TO 0
REGION     POLAR     N5          N5          N5          N5
AURORAL     N4          N4          N5          N5
MIDDLE     N6          N6          N6          N6
LOW     N7          N7          N7          N7
EQUATORIAL     N7          N7          N7          N7
PART II.
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF HF RADIO PROPAGATION CONDITIONS
OBSERVED DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 13/2400Z, AND FORECAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PROPAGATIONS WERE NORMAL.
FORECAST: EXPECT PROPAGATIONS TO REMAIN NORMAL.
PART III. SUMMARY OF SOLAR FLARE INDUCED IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES
WHICH MAY HAVE CAUSED SHORT WAVE FADES IN THE SUNLIT HEMISPHERE
DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 13/1400Z MAY 96 . . .NONE.
PROBABILITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS . . . . NIL.
PART IV. OBSERVED/FORECAST 10.7 CM FLUX AND K/AP.
THE OBSERVED 10.7 CM FLUX FOR 13 MAY 96 WAS 72.
THE FORECAST 10.7 CM FLUX FOR 14, 15, AND 16 MAY 96
ARE 72, 72, AND 72.
THE OBSERVED K/AP VALUE FOR 13 MAY 96 WAS 03/14.
THE FORECAST K/AP VALUES FOR 14, 15, AND 16 MAY 96
ARE 03/12, 03/15, AND 03/15.
SATELLITE X-RAY BACKGROUND: A2.3 (2.3 E MINUS 05 ERGS/CM SQ/SEC).
THE EFFECTIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 13 MAY 96 WAS 15.5.
==============================================================================
27 DAY 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX FORECAST   PREPARED  13 MAY 96
THE FLUX ON 13 MAY 96  WAS  72.  THE 90-DAY MEAN FLUX WAS  71.
10 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX GRAPH
OBSERVED FLUX VERSUS TIME   /L'LAST 27 DAYS/
APR 16      20        25        30         5        10  12 MAY
. X . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . X .
78.
77.                                               L
76.                                         P P P P P
75.                               P P P P P           P
74.         L               P P P         L L
73. . . . . . . . . . . P P . . . . . . . . . . . . . L . MEAN
72.           L P P P P                                 L
71. P P P P P B L B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B
70.   L L                               L
69. L                                 L
68.               L   L L   L L     L
67.                 L     L     L L                     P
66. . . . . . P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M10PCT
65.
. X . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . . . . X . X .
MAY 14      18        23        28         2         7   9 JUN
PREDICTED FLUX VERSUS TIME  /P'PREDICTION   B'FBAR/
P20PCT' 88   P10PCT' 80   MEAN  ' 73   M10PCT' 66   M20PCT' 58
27 DAYS
DATE   FLUX   F BAR   AGO
14 MAY    71     71     69
15 MAY    71     71     70
16 MAY    71     71     70
17 MAY    71     71     71
18 MAY    71     71     74
19 MAY    66     71     72
20 MAY    72     71     71
21 MAY    72     71     68
22 MAY    72     71     67
23 MAY    72     71     68
24 MAY    73     71     68
25 MAY    73     71     67
26 MAY    74     71     68
27 MAY    74     71     68
28 MAY    74     71     67
29 MAY    75     71     67
30 MAY    75     71     68
31 MAY    75     71     69
1 JUN    75     71     70
2 JUN    75     71     74
3 JUN    76     71     74
4 JUN    76     71     76
5 JUN    76     71     76
6 JUN    76     71     77
7 JUN    76     71     76
8 JUN    75     71     73


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