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G4EBT > FUEL 05.03.08 23:31l 126 Lines 4836 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : B08161G4EBT
Read: GUEST
Subj: Re: Peak Oil - Barry VK2AAB
Path: DB0FHN<DB0MRW<OK0PPL<DB0RES<IK2XDE<ON4HU<ON0BEL<GB7FCR
Sent: 080305/2036Z @:GB7FCR.#16.GBR.EU #:63801 [Blackpool] FBB-7.03a $:B08161G4
From: G4EBT@GB7FCR.#16.GBR.EU
To : FUEL@WW
Barry, VK2AAB, asking if he should continue his Peak Oil bulls, wrote:-
>Bob says I am too much of a pessimist.
It's sometimes said that the difference between a pessimist
and an optimist is that a pessimist has more facts.
>Well that could well be true.
I don't think so.
It's something you've spent a great deal of time researching and writing
about on packet Barry.
Personally, I don't think peak oil estimates take sufficient account of
political and economic stability and the insecurity of supply. They
estimates look at the supply and demand side of the equation, projecting
the likely demand, and the known and predicted supply.
The normal forces of supply and demand apply to oil as they do to any
other commodity. If demand is inelastic and rising, (as it is for oil) a
small reduction in supply causes a large increase in price.
In the case of oil, that may make non-viable deposits become economically
viable so more comes on-stream - albeit at a higher price and longer term,
the market adapts.
But what isn't factored into peak oil is political and economic
instability.
For example, 9/11 is still seen simply in terms of a human tragedy, which
is understandable given the great loss of life.
But 9/11 changed the US mind-set and the economic costs of 9/11 are
incalculable. Personally, I doubt that America will ever quite recover
from that. The impact has probably been much more far-reaching than the
attackers could ever have imagined.
Consider this:
America is focused on military might and I think most would agree that
militarily, it's invincible, albeit always vulnerable to terrorist
attacks. But the US seems not to appreciate the fragility and
vulnerability of its economy, which is in poor shape anyway.
Setting aside India and China's growing economies and Russia's emergence
as an economic force to be reckoned with, with its finger on the oil and
gas taps, the Middle East in turmoil due to US meddling in Iraq etc.
Countries such as Iran and Syria growing in confidence and with Oil
already at $100 a barrel, it wouldn't take much for the US economy
to go into freefall.
For example, with the US behind Israel, suppose there comes a point at
which the Arab nations decide to get behind Palestine, and to (wisely)
not use military force.
All that those countries would need to do is to close the Suez Canal,
and the Straits of Hormuz, and stick oil up to $250 a barrel.
That would harm the Arab economies too, but not as much as Western
economies. It would cause wholesale panic on the stock markets and
even if it only lasted a week it would truly spook America.
It only needs some tipping point to trigger something like this off -
200 kids in a school in Palestine blown to bits by an Israeli rocket
or whatever.
I'm not taking sides on this - I'm just saying what could happen and I
don't think it's too far-fetched. And does anyone think that there won't
be other terrorist attacks?
Stinger heat seeking surface to air missiles are available in arms markets
around the world. They fit in a car boot (trunk), can be assembled in
minutes, and take about ten minutes to learn to use.
True, the US have sky marshals, airports have all sorts of security checks
on passengers, but if terrorists want to bring a plane down, why go to all
that rigmarole.
Anyone who has travelled in Europe including the UK will know that there
are countless places within a ten mile radius of major airports where a
car could park without arising suspicion.
Civilian planes have no defences against SAMs, so suppose a US-bound
passenger plane with say 350 passengers was blown out of the sky somewhere
over Europe.
How would America respond to that?
Its usual response has been to carpet bomb some country or another back to
the stone age to "whip some ass".
What effect would it have on air travel for leisure and business purposes?
How would it impact on the stock markets? What effect would it have on oil
prices?
Are these things in the realms of fantasy?
Well let me put it this way, on 9/10 the twin towers were standing.
On 9/11 they were gone.
America is only looking at the supply side of the oil equation - not the
demand side. It seems to think that lots of corn swaying in the breeze
across the prairies will taken the place of Arab oil.
Sure, we'll grown lots of corn - we'll eat some, sell some, feed
some to the cows, and put the rest into our gas tanks.
Fine, go right ahead and preside over the deimise of your domestic car
industry, with GM and Ford making stonking great cars which few want to
buy, while Toyota and Honda go from strength to strength.
Best wishes
David, G4EBT @ GB7FCR
Cottingham, East Yorkshire.
Message timed: 20:20 on 2008-Mar-05
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