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VK2AAB > FUEL 24.02.12 23:55l 107 Lines 4980 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5389_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST DK3UZ
Subj: Uppsala Report on Aus
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Sent: 120224/0141Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:5389 [SYDNEY] $:5389_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
As you can see this report is a little old but is still valid in most
respects. Please note that the IEA stated in a later report that peak crude
oil occured in 2006.
Note the Sydney Caltex refinery is to close and the Victorian refinery is to
stop producing petrol. All petrol in eastern states will be imported from the
Singapore market (TAPIS $132.90 a barrel today)
73 Barry VK2AAB
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Australia faces looming fuel shortages.
December 28th 2010.
Australia will soon not be able to import enough oil to meet demand because of
Peak Oil.
This warning comes from Prof Kjell Aleklett, head of the Global Energy Systems
group at Uppsala University in Sweden, who is currently visiting Australia.
Peak Oil is the time when the rate of global oil production reaches its
all-time maximum and starts its inevitable downtrend. Forecasts vary from
between 2011 to beyond 2015.
Australia's own oil production has been declining since 2000, and already 80
per cent of the fuel for our cars, trucks and planes is imported, either
directly or as crude oil to be refined in Australia.
“Declining global oil production, increasing internal consumption in OPEC
nations and increasing demand from China and India will mean there is less oil
available for importers like Australia, US and Europe, just when their own
domestic production is declining,” says Prof Aleklett.
Prof Aleklett has published a critical review of the International Energy
Agency's World Energy Outlook, casting very serious doubts on the
independence and methodology of the IEA forecasts.
“In 2008, the IEA predicted world oil production would grow from the current
85 million barrels/day to 106 mb/d in 2030. However, the Uppsala group, using
the same base data on existing reserves and future discoveries, can see only 75
mb/d. This means a substantial decline in oil availability instead of business
as usual growth. This will almost inevitably lead to oil shortages in
Australia,” he warns.
The IEA and the Uppsala group agree that production is dropping in most of the
world's giant oil fields by about 6 per cent per annum. It is the ability of
new fields to fill this enormous decline gap which is the bone of contention.
“The difference is due to the IEA's mistake in assuming impossibly high rates
of extraction from future oil fields, twice as high even as those unachieved in
the high-tech North Sea region. Oil has to flow through the pores in the
reservoir rocks to find its way to the oil well to be pumped up. The flow
rates depend largely on the laws of physics and on the geology and permeability
of the sediments,” Prof Aleklett says.
“Sadly, economics and market forces have little impact on droplets of oil
squeezing through rocks kilometres below the surface.”
The IEA is an oil-importers' cartel to counterbalance OPEC, the oil exporting
countries' cartel.
“There has been public criticism of the IEA for succumbing to political
pressure from the US to give unreasonably optimistic oil forecasts,” says
Prof Aleklett. “But even the IEA has been reducing its forecasts of future
oil production over the years, from 121 mb/d by 2030, to 115 then 106 and now
96 mb/day in 2030. However, the Uppsala group's criticisms of the IEA
methods have been unchallenged. I stand by my assessment that world oil
production will start declining soon.”
Forecasts of looming global oil shortages have also been given by a range of
authorities, including the US and German Defence Departments, Sir Richard
Branson and even Macquarie Bank.
Prof Aleklett is warning planners and investors that on-going business-as-usual
growth in Australia's oil usage is impossible.
“Peak Oil will mean peak traffic and peak air-travel. Car and plane trips
will start to decrease as oil shortages hit.
“Cities and businesses that prepare in advance for the probability of oil
shortages will fare far better than those that believe the fairy-tales that oil
production will keep increasing continuously.
“Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management planning should be an
essential step for governments and investors. People whose superannuation is
in airport and urban toll-road companies will be very hard hit unless the funds
managers start considering Peak Oil risks, soon. Oil vulnerability assessment
should be an essential part of any investment decisions as most companies will
be affected in one way or another,” Prof Aleklett concluded.
Further information:
Bruce Robinson, Convenor, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil
08-9384 7409 0427 398 708
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
Prof Kjell Aleklett (pronounced "Shell" as in petrol, and "All aclett"
0404 701 100
Prof Aleklett's latest presentation to WA Government planners etc is on the
ASPO-Australia front page at
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Aleklett/20101217%20Perth.pdf
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