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VK2AAB > FUEL 09.05.11 04:14l 31 Lines 1705 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4581_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST DK3UZ
Subj: Re: Bob & Peter's comments
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Sent: 110509/0108Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:4581 [SYDNEY] $:4581_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
As Bob may have seen on ABC Catalyst program even Fath Birol of IEA is saying
that governments should have taken action 10 years ago.
The Hirsch report said 20 years for a smooth changeover to a new energy regime.
Expert opinion seems to be forcasting depletion setting in from as early as thisyear up until about 2015.
Certainly production has been quite steady since 2004, with only short time
peaks over 86 million barells a day of all liquids.
Sometimes you see reports of "HUGE" findings of an oil field but when you divideit by 85 million it means it could supply the world by perhaps one month.
The real problem is that new wells and fields are much more expensive to both
find and develope. Older fields are being squeezed by pumping in water or CO2
to force more oil out but all this means they get a bit more oil but it depletesvery quickly therafter and comes up with a lot of water. This appears to be the
situation on Saudi Arabia. However it is all a state secret there so no audited
production figures available and everyone is trying to deduct their production
by info from companies that specialise in counting tankers leaving the Arabian
Gulf.
We all hope that world production goes down gradually and not have some sort
of crisis such as a revolution in the Middle East.
Australia is believed to be one of the more at risk countries of a sudden
collapse in supply. We only produce 40% of our consumption so we could easily
be elbowed out of the market.
So to sum up it is a very uncertain situation which our government does not
want to face up
Senator Barnaby Joyce and the Greens are the only ones to speak out.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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