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VK2AAB > FUEL 03.10.10 08:47l 28 Lines 1191 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1300_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: Systemic Collapse
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Sent: 101003/0459Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:1300 [SYDNEY] $:1300_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
Those of you who have followed the bulletins I have put out under FUEL will
perhaps be interested in how the discussion is proceeding amoungst experts.
Now that opinion has settled on a date for peak oil of 2008 interest has
shifted to when the plateau starts its decline. Opinion seems to be settling
on 2012 to 2017.
What is known as the Export Land Model which shows that a decline in production
results in a steeper decline in exports because of increased internal
consumption of oil for domestic purposes. It seems that in some cases a 2%
decline in production could result in an export decline of 3 to 4 %.
Attention is now switching to economic system sensitivity to the loss or higher
prices of various products. Some theorise that a reduction in available energy
will trigger a collapse of a particular industry that in turn will collapse
many other industries.
An example of this area of discussion is a paper by an Australian entitled,
The Networking of Resource Production: Do Networks Give us Warnings When
They are About to Fail ?
You can read this at;
http://anz.theoildrum/node/6974
Well worth a read.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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