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VK2AAB > FUEL 29.04.10 03:24l 114 Lines 6137 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7257_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: PEAK OIL It is here NOW
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Sent: 100429/0049Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:7257 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i $:7257_VK2
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
I have not sent out a FUEL bulletin for a while but nothing much has changed.
The politicians, world wide, do not want to talk about it, although it is
becoming clear that they have been briefed on the problem.
Crude oil production has not changed since May 2005.
A meeting of oil companies and governments was held in Cancun Mexico this
month but the press was excluded, and only motherhood statements were made.
It is known that reserves and production were discussed.
A meeting was held in the UK under Charter House Rules with members of UK
industry and energy dept public servants. Peak Oil was discussed but no
indication of who said what can be given.
The following is text of a broadcast on Radio Australia.
73 Barry VK2AAB
---------------------------------------------
Australian infrastructure expert warns of fresh oil crunch
Updated April 28, 2010 09:43:24
One of the Australian Government's top infrastructure advisers is warning of an
oil crunch, which could send the global economy spiralling back toward
recession. Curtin University's Professor Peter Newman is on the Government's
Infrastructure Australia council. He says peak oil when demand outstrips
dwindling supply - has already hit, but the global downturn has kept prices low
. Professor Newman even blames oil for causing the global recession in the
first place, and he's not alone.
Presenter: Jeff Waters
Speakers: Professor Peter Newman, Infrastructure Australia Council member;
Professor Kjell Aleklett, Swedish-based President of the Association for the
study of Peak Oil and Gas
* Listen:
* Windows Media
WATERS: It was a theory which emerged in the 1990's. Proponents of the peak oil
scenario said the cost of oil, and therefore petrol, would rise exponentially
in the first decade of the new century when increasing demand outstripped
finite supply. With oil now hovering at about 85 US dollars a barrel it doesn't
seem to have happened at least in the original timeframe.
But Curtin University Professor Peter Newman, who's a federal government
adviser on the Infrastructure Australia Council says we've already reached peak
oil back in 2008 when it spiked at around 140 dollars a barrel and sent petrol
prices soaring.
NEWMAN: Peak oil did happen i believe in 2008. 140 dollars a barrel was a
massive increase and it didn't happen because some oil exporting country had a
revolution or something. it just happened because we couldn't produce enough to
meet demand
WATERS: Professor Newman largely blames the global financial crisis on oil.
NEWMAN: The reality was that subprime mortgages were largely out on the urban
fringes miles away from work people had to drive and when the price of fuel
tripled in american cities they couldn't pay their mortgages so that's what
caused the damage to the economy and it just rippled around the world. The oil
price is hanging around the 80 dollar mark but as the demand increases again
the supply crunch will happen and the price will go up so there's no question
that most oil company people are now saying the era of cheap oil is over.
WATERS: As the global economy has strengthened in recent months, so has the oil
price. It's still fluctuating, and fell at the end of last week. But just
before that fall, some observers watched nervously as oil futures approached 90
dollars a barrel. Professor Newman says it doesn't bode well for recovery.
NEWMAN: The recovery would very quickly unravel, we'd go into the w rather than
the v and that w would have a very shaky last part of the letter as well and
coming out of it would be not as easy to predict. All of the old formulae would
be unravelling and there are people who are beginning to understand that this
is a fundamental change not just a quick turnaround that we can do but easily
just propping up banks and things we've actually got to do things differently
and that means less oil.
WATERS: Professor Kjell Aleklett is the Swedish-based president of the
Association for the study of Peak Oil and Gas. He's in agreement with his
Australian counterpart.
ALEKLETT: The fact is we are producing less oil now than we did in 2008 so just
now we have 2008 as the peak year for peak oil because oil is so related to the
global economy and the global economy is just weak now and that is why the
price of oil is not jumping high.
WATERS: Professor Aleklett says he thinks the world will find away around the
problem, simply because it'll grind to a halt if it doesn't.
ALEKLETT: I'm one of those people that believe that it's not very possible to
have a high price of oil because that would mean the end of globalisation and
the fact is that a price of $200 a barrel then there will not exist an airline
industry any longer and we will see problems with airlines in the future.
WATERS: On the other side of the debate are academics like the University of
South Australia's Doctor Vlado Vivoda.
VIVODA: I disagree with that assertion and for a number of reasons. one is what
peak oil theorists miss out on is the fact that with improvements in our
technologies and improvements in a drop in oil production costs what it is
considered oil is changing as well i see the definition changing of what is
exploitable oil changes in levels in technological efficiency and with the
changes in the exploration or the production of oil.
WATERS: The question is whether we'll adopt new technologies fast enough. Some
Australian municipal councils have already drawn up peak oil strategies and
Professor Peter Newman welcomes big recent federal spending on public
transport. But he says he'd like to see a full national plan.
NEWMAN: We need a complete plan, we really do need a national peak oil strategy
that can take us through the next two decades of change in our infrastructure
requirements. I think that's something infra australia can do it will need
political assistance and so it need the public to get be hind it and say yes
this is an issue that's going to need that is now going to become just as
important as global warming
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