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VK2AAB > FUEL 17.12.08 07:20l 63 Lines 3608 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 65330_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: ASPO Submission to Infrastructure Commission
Path: DB0FHN<DB0MRW<DK0WUE<SP7MGD<VK7AX<VK2TGB<VK2IO<VK2AAB
Sent: 081217/0421Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:65330 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
The following is a link and the executive summary for a submission to the
Infrastructure Australia Commission.
This body is charged with planning and making submisions to the government on
future infrastrucure exoenditure.
73 Barry VK2AAB
==============================================
http://anz.theoildrum.com/files/ASPO_InfrastructureAustralia_Oct2008.pdf
Executive Summary
World oil production is at or near its historic peak and will most likely begin
to
decline within several years. Net exports of oil available on the world market
have probably entered a decline that will continue more steeply than the
declining rate of production. Compounded by the impact of geopolitical
circumstances, extreme weather events and other economic trends, the
decline in oil availability will see dramatically increasing and highly
volatile oil
and fuel prices, oil supply shocks and impacts on economic growth,
employment, demographics and transport patterns.
Australia's economy, particularly its transport system, is highly dependent on
growing supplies of affordable petroleum fuel, however domestic oil
production peaked in 2000 and is now in decline. Almost one half of the oil
consumed in Australia is imported and the petroleum trade deficit already
exceeds $12 billion per annum. Based on official production and demand
forecasts Australia will need to import approximately two thirds of its oil by
2015, in a setting of rapidly declining availability and increasing prices in
international markets.
The nature of Australia's infrastructure is a key determinant of its oil
vulnerability. Much infrastructure investment in recent years has exacerbated
the country's oil dependence. Despite growing awareness of peak oil,
infrastructure planners have either ignored the phenomenon altogether or
explicitly rejected the likely impacts. Many projects are already at risk of
failure as their planning assumptions become invalidated by the combined
impact of peak oil, the world financial crisis and related economic factors.
More appropriate investment facilitated by Infrastructure Australia will be
crucial in mitigating the impact of peak oil. The need to reduce Australia's
oil
vulnerability should be included in Infrastructure Australia's goals and
strategic priorities. Oil vulnerability assessment should be included in the
feasibility studies for significant infrastructure projects.
The resilience of existing energy infrastructure needs to be improved, while a
longer term transition to sustainable energy is facilitated. Australia needs to
establish a strategic petroleum reserve equivalent to 90 days of oil imports.
Direct investment needs to be made in renewable, distributed energy
infrastructure to minimise the impact of systemic shocks and alleviate the
socio-economic impact of peak oil.
Serious flaws in existing transport planning processes have resulted in a high
dependence on cars and road freight, which are both highly vulnerable to the
impact of peak oil. Infrastructure Australia should commission an independent
study into the implications of peak oil for transport planning, in order to
determine realistic planning assumptions. Urgent investment in sustainable
transport systems is required, including world class public transport and
freight rail. Investment in expanding urban motorways should be discontinued,
as should airport expansions. The feasibility of high speed passenger rail
should be investigated as a long term alternative to air travel.
Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure ASPO-Australia
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