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VK2AAB > FOOD 15.08.07 02:33l 56 Lines 2462 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 45794_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST DF3IAH DK7NR
Subj: Oh Dear ! Peak Phosphorous
Path: DB0FHN<DB0MRW<DK0WUE<ON0BEL<I0TVL<VK2TGB<VK2IO<VK2AAB
Sent: 070814/2335Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:45794 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FOOD@WW
Hello All,
To add to our problems here is a study on the supply of
phosphorous. The author has been able to apply the Hubbard linearisation to
the production of agricultural phosphorus to Nauru's production. It fits.
Here is an extract and the link to the article with graphs.
73 Barry VK2AAB
Published on 13 Aug 2007 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 13 Aug 2007.
Peak phosphorus
by Patrick D‚ry and Bart Anderson
Peak oil has made us aware that many of the resources on which civilization depends are limited.
M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist for Shell Oil, found that oil production over time followed
a curve that was roughly bell-shaped. He correctly predicted that oil production in the lower
48 states would peak in 1970. Other analysts following Hubbert's methods are predicting a peak
in oil production early this century.
The depletion analysis pioneered by Hubbert can be applied to other non-renewable resources.
Analysts have looked at peak production for resouces such as natural gas, coal and uranium.
In this paper, Patrick D‚ry applies Hubbert's methods to a very special non-renewable
resource - phosphorus - a nutrient essential for agriculture.
In the literature, estimates before we "run out" of phosphorus range from 50 to 130 years.
This date is conveniently far enough in the future so that immediate action does not seem
necessary. However, as we know from peak oil analysis, trouble begins not when we "run out"
of a resource, but when production peaks.
From that point onward, the resource becomes more difficult to extract and more expensive.
Physicist D‚ry applied the technique of Hubbert Linearization to data available from the
United States Geological Survey (USGS)[1] to phosphorus production in the following:
* The small Pacific island nation of Nauru, a former phosphate exporter.
* The United States, a major phosphate producer.
* The world.
He tested Hubbert Linearization first on data from Nauru to see whether he could have predicted
the year of its peak phosphate production in 1973. Satisfied with the results, he applied the
method to United States and the world. He estimates that U.S. peak phosphorus occurred in 1988
and for the world in 1989.
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You can find the article at http://www.energybulletin.net/33164.html
John G8MNY, did you get my msg about ascii graphs ?
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