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LU9DCE > NEWS 15.10.26 13:35l 368 Lines 14567 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25004_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-OCT
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<GB7BED<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 261015/1130Z 25004@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU OCT 15 08:23:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU OCT 15 08:23:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU OCT 15 08:23:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU OCT 15 08:23:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST,
AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS WILL ENABLE AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON, WITH MLCAPE LIKELY PEAKING
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A MID-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON HAVE 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE 200 TO 250 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING
THAT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHORT LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POOR LAPSE
RATES WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY, AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH THE FRONT LOCATED FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY, WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK
IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
MULTICELLS. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 10/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH, WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ATTENDING BELT
OF STRONG, SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW (E.G., 70-90 KT AT 500
MB) WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH, THE EASTERN EDGE OF WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER-OHIO VALLEY REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING TO OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRIDAY FROM NORTHERN
PA AND NY INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND DECREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT LIMITING AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, GREATER DIABATIC HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F TO YIELD MLCAPE APPROACHING
500-750 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL CAPE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE WILL
BE LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN OH AND WV INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF PA AND NY. AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55
KT, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND DELMARVA, WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
AN UPGRADE TO LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
..MEAD.. 10/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 15, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AN INITIAL, FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST
TO FRACTURE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE POLAR AIR STREAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA, WHILE AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN FL BY AFTERNOON, CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DISPLACEMENT OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY WITHIN A ZONE OF MIDLEVEL MOISTENING AND
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT FEATURE.
..MEAD.. 10/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 15, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH,
WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY/DAYS 5 AND 6. THEREAFTER, 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
POTENTIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY/DAY 8. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL SLOW THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE GULF INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS.
...DAYS 4 THROUGH 6/SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
...DAYS 7 AND 8/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE PARTICULAR DETAILS REGARDING LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SIGNAL
THAT A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY COULD MATERIALIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
WHERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY ON THE CONDITION THAT
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSITION
TO AN OPEN WAVE, QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN DEFINED TROUGHING
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF LOW WILL DETACH INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT, AN INCREASING
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA THAT HAVE NOT SEEN RECENT RAINFALL.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS OFFSHORE FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA. RESULTANT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WILL EMERGE WITH RELATED DOWNSLOPE DRYING FROM A DRY AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU, ALLOWING FOR RH REDUCTIONS AS
LOW AS 10%. A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH COUPLED WITH LOW RH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SIMI VALLEY AREA OF WESTERN L.A.
COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY.
...SIERRA NEVADA, PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NAPA
VALLEY...
INCREASING EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING INTO THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NOT EXCEEDING 30% WILL PRECONDITION FUELS WHERE ERCS
ARE AT THE 80-90TH PERCENTILES. EAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (LOCALLY
20-25 MPH IN FAVORED VALLEY CORRIDORS) AND DAYTIME RH OF 15% WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL BRING A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
NAPA VALLEY AREA. NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WILL TRANSITION TO EAST-NORTHEAST OVER NAPA VALLEY AND NEARBY
COASTAL RANGES AS RH FALLS TO AS LOW AS 10% BY THIS AFTERNOON.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY...VENTURA
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS FROM NEW ENGLAND. A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON DAY 2/FRIDAY, WITH DRY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW BRINGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CA.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 2/FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A
MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL AID IN DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
(GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE VALLEYS, POSSIBLY UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS) AMID 10-15% RH. THE LONG DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL ALLOW FUELS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RECEPTIVE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS INTO THE LOWER
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-20%.
THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LIKELY AT ITS FINAL PEAK BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO DAY
3/SATURDAY. A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN L.A. COUNTY INTO VENTURA AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
DAY 2/FRIDAY, SUPPORTING THE INTRODUCTION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION...
A DRY, POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WIND WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE
DROUGHT PROLIFERATES, WITH ERC VALUES RANGING FROM THE 80-90TH
PERCENTILES. NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (PERHAPS UP TO
20 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS) AND RH AS LOW AS 25% WILL PROMOTE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON HOURS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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