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LU9DCE > NEWS 06.10.26 14:04l 281 Lines 9708 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24218_LU9DCE
Read: DJ6UX OE5RCO GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-OCT
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261006/1130Z 24218@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 6 08:34:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 6 08:34:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE OCT 6 08:34:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE OCT 6 08:34:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 6, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
CONUS AS A 500 MB JET MAXIMUM OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES. A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CONUS AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER MOST AREAS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FL
PENINSULA, WHERE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF A
DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, PROMOTING ENOUGH BUOYANCY (ALBEIT
MARGINAL) TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING SUBTLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
ENCOURAGE A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
...CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS POISED TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN GULF AND ENCOURAGE LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL
YIELD MODESTLY CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, BUT WITH MARGINAL,
THIN CAPE PROFILES GIVEN VERY POOR (5-5.5 C/KM) MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A FEW STORMS MAY EXHIBIT BRIEF PERIODS OF TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION OFFSHORE, BUT THE THREAT FOR PERSISTENT, ROTATING UPDRAFTS
REACHING THE SHORELINE APPEAR TOO LOW FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI/WENDT.. 10/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC OCT 6, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
...NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD JAMES BAY, WITH A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. A BACKSIDE SPEED MAX ALOFT WILL
NOSE INTO MI LATE IN THE DAY, AND TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT NORTH OF THE MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX AND MINIMAL MOISTURE MAY YIELD A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
...FOUR CORNERS STATES...
COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES, EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CA. ISOLATED GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE WEAK
FLOW REGIME. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.
...NE...
DURING THE EVENING, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOL ALOFT, AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY OVERALL.
...FL...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FL PENINSULA
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL NOT FAVOR SEVERE STORMS.
..JEWELL.. 10/06/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 6, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WITH
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY VIRTUE OF
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TO THE SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE EXCEPTION BEING FL WHERE A MOIST AIR MASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
TO THE WEST, ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, AND OVERNIGHT FROM
EASTERN NE INTO NORTHWEST MO. HERE, MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR TO ANY ELEVATED HAIL CHANCES.
..JEWELL.. 10/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC OCT 6, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRI/D4 AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGING OCCURS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME, AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER TX. MEANWHILE, A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE FRI/D4 INTO SAT/D5, AS THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVES. NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING. AS SUCH, AN INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTH, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHIELD AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRI/D4
NIGHT. INITIALLY, SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER LAND WILL REMAIN COOL
DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND INITIAL MODIFICATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AIR MASS.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS SAT/D5 IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING TO OCCUR, WITH TROPICAL YET
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE PROFILES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS HOW THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL LOW.
SOME MODELS INDICATE 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS, WHICH WOULD COMPLEMENT
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FAVOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES GIVEN EXPECTED POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FARTHER
INLAND. INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY GIVE WAY TO AN EAST-WEST
ZONE OF SUPERCELLS AS THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INLAND. SOME
ADDITIONAL THREAT INTO SUN/D6 MAY EXIST AS WELL.
FOR THE PERIOD MON/D7 INTO TUE/D8, MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT LATER IN THE PERIOD, AND COULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN A ZONE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, HOWEVER,
PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A JET STREAK ADVANCING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL INTRODUCE DRY, BREEZY
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE BROADER REGION, BUT AREAS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE DAKOTAS MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH ALONGSIDE
HIGHER GUSTS. FUELS REMAIN MINIMALLY RECEPTIVE, WHICH WILL PREVENT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ISOLATED DRY VEGETATION.
..STEARNS.. 10/06/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ON DAY 2/WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15-20
MPH IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, RHS WILL FAIL TO DROP BELOW 30%, WHICH
ONLY REINFORCES THE ALREADY LIMITED FUEL RECEPTIVENESS, PRECLUDING A
NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..STEARNS.. 10/06/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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