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LU9DCE > NEWS 30.09.26 18:34l 281 Lines 10298 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23146_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GUEST DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260930/1615Z 23146@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED SEP 30 08:56:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED SEP 30 08:56:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 30 08:56:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 30 08:56:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/NORTHWEST TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES EXISTS OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
MAY MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION MAY SLOW ITS ADVANCE.
A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO AND
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY REMAIN
WEAK DUE TO LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER, IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON, THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WHICH
COULD POSE A LOCALIZED TORNADO AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT.
FARTHER SOUTH, THE COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND/OR SHIFT NORTHWARD BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU, WHERE HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR/ABOVE 1500 J/KG, DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, GENERALLY
FRONT-PARALLEL FLOW AND INCREASING STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH TIME. STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR. ALSO, WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER
COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH, SOME INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A LOCALIZED BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX/OK
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH DIMINISHING BUOYANCY WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TREND.
..DEAN/WEINMAN.. 09/30/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG
A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS A POSSIBILITY. THIS THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. ANY WIND-DAMAGE THREAT
THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 30, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. ON FRIDAY.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OZARKS FRIDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS
WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE MOIST AIRMASS, THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
A SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 30, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
TO NEAR THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
DURING THE UPCOMING EARLY TO MID WEEK, MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. A DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT, A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME TO CALIFORNIA
AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE CENTER OF AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER NEW MEXICO, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS IT BECOMES REINCORPORATED WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE LOW, PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BRINGING PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER AN ENVIRONMENT STRESSED BY LONG-TERM
DROUGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
NEW MEXICO/COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
MOISTURE, A RESIDUAL HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH WHERE RECEPTIVE
FUELS EXIST; HOWEVER, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 MPH
SHOULD LIMIT A BROADER FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 09/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSITION INTO
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGHING AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD ON DAY
2/THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED RELIEF
TO DRY FUELS IN THE EASTERN ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN. MEANWHILE, RIDGING
WILL RAPIDLY EXPAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PROMOTING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY UNDER THESE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 09/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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