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LU9DCE > NEWS 29.09.26 19:33l 322 Lines 12589 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23070_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GUEST DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<W9GM<KA3BVJ<VE3CGR<
LU9DCE
Sent: 260929/1615Z 23070@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE SEP 29 08:50:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE SEP 29 08:50:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 29 08:50:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 29 08:50:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH, HURRICANE POLO IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY, PHASING OF THE MIDLEVEL REMNANT OF POLO
WITH THE APPROACHING DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NM
AND WEST TX THROUGH THE EVENING.
...SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX, AS INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADS A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE
WILL RESULT IN A TENDENCY TOWARD COMPLEX OR LINEAR STORM MODES WITH
TIME, THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT A LOCALIZED TORNADO AND SEVERE-GUST THREAT
COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...ARIZONA...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF AZ THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SRH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. AT
THIS TIME, ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND TRANSIENT ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY GREATER DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY.
..DEAN/WEINMAN.. 09/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED 50 TO 70 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME WELL-DEFINED FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY 21Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35
TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENT, WHEN STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES, A LINE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE. IN ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE.
THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING, AS THE
LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS.
...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY AFTERNOON, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KANSAS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE
COULD PEAK NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS, COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30
KNOTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 09/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 29, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON, MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS A ZONE FROM SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F MAY RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITHIN THESE POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, MAINLY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, WHICH WILL MARGINALIZE
ANY SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 09/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 29, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW. A COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO
MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR THE GULF COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
ALONG PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO BECOME ENTRAINED
WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW, AIDING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FARTHER NORTH, INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
...SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND RH VALUES OF 10-15% ARE
EXPECTED AS A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH INDUCES NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AMID A DRYING FUELSCAPE SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY, OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORIES AND RH AS LOW AS
15% WILL ALSO IMPACT SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS WILL
APPROACH 15-20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THUS, ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
...NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
A REGION OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ATOP A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH OF
20-25 PERCENT WILL OVERLAP DRYING FUELS, PROMOTING AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 09/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME TO CALIFORNIA
AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2/WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER NEW MEXICO, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES REINCORPORATED WITHIN BROADER TROUGHING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE LOW, PROVIDING AMPLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGING PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER AN ENVIRONMENT STRESSED BY
LONG-TERM DROUGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING MOISTURE, A RESIDUAL HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHERE RECEPTIVE
FUELS EXIST; HOWEVER, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 09/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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