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LU9DCE > NEWS 28.09.26 19:03l 295 Lines 11159 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23005_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST OE5RCO DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<K5DAT<KB8OAK<VE3CGR<
LU9DCE
Sent: 260928/1615Z 23005@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON SEP 28 07:32:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON SEP 28 07:32:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON SEP 28 07:32:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON SEP 28 07:32:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 28, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW ON MONDAY.
... SYNOPSIS ...
A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND
BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHILE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LARGE-SCALE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWEST US TROUGH WILL DRAW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TIED TO HURRICANE POLO AND REMNANTS OF ODALYS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS, A WEAKER MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A WEAKENING
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
... NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MODEST MOISTURE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WARM-ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THICKENING
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO PROMOTE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING, A
CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG (PER MEAN HREF VALUES) MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST
WYOMING, WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. HOWEVER,
MODEST MID-LEVEL WARMING, WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, AND UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WHETHER INTENSE STORMS FORM AT ALL SHOULD KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE WINDOW NARROW IN SPACE AND TIME.
MORE ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. BUOYANCY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WIND THREAT AFTER DARK.
... SOUTHWEST ...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS NORTH AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY
GENERALLY WEAK AND STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED. AN ISOLATED WET
DOWNBURST IS POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIER CORES IN ANY POCKETS OF STRONG
HEATING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.
... NORTHEAST ...
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER -- MAINLY NEAR THE COAST --
MAY CONTINUE WITH THE SLOWLY WEAKENING CYCLONE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW. HOWEVER,
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED/SPORADIC DAMAGE.
..MARSH/WEINMAN.. 09/28/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 28, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY,
AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
FROM EASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER, BUT
ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 09/28/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 28, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED 50 TO 70 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE DAY, AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS FROM THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MODEL FORECASTS VARY CONCERNING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS, WITH MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR LAWTON. THIS LOCATION WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
21Z NEAR THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AXIS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE, A
LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. DURING THE
EARLY EVENING, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 200 TO 250 M2/S2 RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT A TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS IN THE LINE.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE
LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AT MID-LEVELS, DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW. SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO BE POOR, MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 50 KTS OF 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELLS, ESPECIALLY
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 09/28/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN, WILL
SUPPORT DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA BEGINNING
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH, ARE
POSSIBLE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
AND THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH 15-25 PERCENT RH AND INCREASINGLY DRY
FUELS, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
..WEINMAN.. 09/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN DRY, BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20
MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30-45, ARE POSSIBLE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. RH OF 15-20 PERCENT, COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
...NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE
BREEZY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT ON TUESDAY. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH OF 15-20 PERCENT WILL
OVERLAP DRY FUELS, YIELDING ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/28/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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