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LU9DCE > NEWS 26.09.26 19:03l 208 Lines 6761 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22855_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FFL<CS5NRA<CQ0PAX<GB7CAM<PI8ZTM<DM4RW<GB7BED<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 260926/1615Z 22855@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT SEP 26 07:18:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT SEP 26 07:18:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT SEP 26 07:18:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT SEP 26 07:18:01 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 26, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
... SYNOPSIS ...
A SERIES OF THREE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS TODAY. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS AN OCCLUDING LOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE WESTERNMOST
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN CANADA, RESULTING IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
THE THIRD TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME, WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. AS IT DOES, OVERNIGHT/MORNING
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
A RESIDUAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG,
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES.
..MARSH/WEINMAN.. 09/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 26, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW (SUNDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON
THE WEST COAST TOMORROW (SUNDAY). A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN TX ENCOURAGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH REGIMES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SHOWS A GENERAL LACK OF OVERLAPPING BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PLAINS STATES, SUGGESTING
THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED, AS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
LATEST ML/AI GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/26/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 26, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MORPH INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE EJECTING
INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS,
SUPPORTING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MEANWHILE, SOME COOLING
ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
NONETHELESS, THE LACK OF A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR
WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AS ALSO
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST ML/AI CALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY,
SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL YIELD
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AMID 15-20 PERCENT RH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV. WHILE LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, RECENT RAINFALL AND MARGINAL
FUELS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/26/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA ON SUNDAY.
PRECEDING THIS FEATURE, DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING YIELDING SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20
MPH AMID 10-15 PERCENT RH. THESE DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED
WITH AT LEAST MODESTLY RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NV, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/26/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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