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LU9DCE > NEWS 25.09.26 18:42l 253 Lines 8641 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22779_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST OE5RCO DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260925/1615Z 22779@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 25 08:28:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 25 08:28:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI SEP 25 08:28:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI SEP 25 08:28:01 UTC
2026.
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SPC SEP 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY.
...WESTERN OK...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM TX TO MN ON FRIDAY, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
OVER NM, AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEST
TX AND WESTERN OK. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH-CLOUDS WILL SLOW/LESSEN
DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW OF THE 00Z CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME
CONCERN FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OK ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STRONG HEATING CAN OCCUR, THESE STORMS COULD POSE A
RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. DUE TO THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER,
WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME AND RE-EVALUATE
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM...
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST US, WITH WIDESPREAD WEAK CAPE LEADING TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM SHOW SOME RISK OF HAIL
IN THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER, PARAMETERS ARE RATHER WEAK FOR
SEVERE-CALIBER HAIL SO WILL FOREGO AN UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
..HART/WEINMAN.. 09/25/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE WEST
AND EAST COASTS, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW (SATURDAY). A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE UPPER RIDGE AND EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES, ENCOURAGING
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE, WILL
FOSTER ENOUGH OVERLAPPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BUOYANCY TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
BY AFTERNOON, SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S F, AMID
60S F DEWPOINTS, BENEATH 7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN TX. AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AMID A
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT. GIVEN 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
EXPECTED, MULTICELLS AND A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STORM MODES, CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/25/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 25, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY SUPPORT AN
INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL. HOWEVER, BUOYANCY
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TO POOR, SO ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR PROBABILITIES THIS
OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/25/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 25, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, CONTAINING MULTIPLE SMALLER
IMPULSES, WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (DAYS 5-7/TUESDAY-THURSDAY) BEFORE
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND DAY
6/WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A POOR OVERLAP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH THE MOIST AXIS, LIKELY INHIBITING GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL, IN
AGREEMENT WITH CALIBRATED ML/AI GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. AS SUCH, NO
PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE BASE OF A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, 40-50-KT MIDLEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. DOWNSLOPE-AIDED WARMING
AND DRYING WILL PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, ALLOWING
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, A CORRIDOR OF 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH 15-20
PERCENT RH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NV, SOUTHEASTERN OR, AND
SOUTHWESTERN ID THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AT LEAST MODESTLY RECEPTIVE
FUELS, ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING, THOUGH WEAKER POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AMID AFTERNOON RH OF 15-20 PERCENT. WHILE LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV, MARGINAL FUELS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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