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LU9DCE > NEWS 22.09.26 19:33l 260 Lines 9165 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22598_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<DB0FFL<CS5NRA<CQ0PAX<GB7CAM<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260922/1615Z 22598@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE SEP 22 07:59:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE SEP 22 07:59:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 22 07:59:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE SEP 22 07:59:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 22, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN UTAH....
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH.
...SOUTHEAST...
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F. THIS WILL
AID DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE STRONGEST LOCALIZED INSTABILITY.
...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH/FAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH, AS A COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. THE SALT LAKE CITY RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT 21Z HAS 0-6 KM
SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7
TO 8 C/KM RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/22/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 22, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES, AND AN UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY). SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTERIOR
WEST, LIMITING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ONE SMALL EXCEPTION
MAY BE ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN TN. HERE, A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WITH MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS BOOSTING MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG (ALBEIT TALL AND THIN
PROFILES). A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING 30+ KT 500 MB JET
WILL YIELD MODESTLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR. CAM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS PULSE CELLULAR AND
MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. AN INSTANCE OF HAIL
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR A STRONG GUST CAUSING TREE/WIRE
DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 22, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WHILE
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS STATES. WEST OF THE ROCKIES,
AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE TOO MEAGER TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/22/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 22, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN U.S. WILL PERSEVERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND POINTS
WESTWARD, WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM-RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, ENCOURAGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY OR
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH AI/ML CALIBRATED GUIDANCE ALSO NOT
DEPICTING A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE, SO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD
THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TODAY, FARTHER INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AZ, EASTERN UT AND SOUTHERN WY, BUT MARGINAL FUELS AND LIMITED
OVERLAP WITH LOW RH WILL SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THIS
REGION. A RETURN OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST,
TOGETHER WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AZ/NM LATER TODAY
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN) ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND EASTERN AZ TODAY,
DIMINISHING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. RECEPTIVE FUELS PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT A BROADER FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR TODAY.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/22/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
REDUCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO D2/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO ND AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A RESULTANT CORRIDOR OF SOUTH
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (LOCALLY 20 MPH) ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL FUELS COUPLED WITH
LIMITED RH REDUCTIONS SHOULD INHIBIT BROADER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS INCLUDING RH NEARING 15% DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, MARGINAL FUELS
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PRECLUDES FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/22/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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