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LU9DCE > NEWS 21.09.26 20:03l 246 Lines 8143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22544_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VK6HGR<VK7AX<VK3AT<
VE3QBZ<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260921/1630Z 22544@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON SEP 21 08:31:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON SEP 21 08:31:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON SEP 21 08:31:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON SEP 21 08:31:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 21, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
...SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN U.S. TODAY. BY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN
VIRGINIA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WARM, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE MLCAPE SHOULD PEAK IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME STEEP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH SINGLE CELLS OR
DISORGANIZED MULTICELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL BUT
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE
MOST.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/21/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 21, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW (TUESDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE OH VALLEY AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE PLAINS STATES, AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW (TUESDAY). A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO TX AS HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A COOLER AND STABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE OVERALL GIVEN POOR VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS
MAY ACCOMPANY WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORM CORES OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/21/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 21, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE SOUTHEAST.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS AS A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES, WHERE
WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL ENCOURAGE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TN
VALLEY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF A CLEAR SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT, AS WELL AS OVERLAPPING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OR
INSTABILITY ANYWHERE OVER THE CONUS, NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/21/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 21, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A MID-LEVEL
CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE DAYS 4-8
PERIOD, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES GIVEN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING, AND IT IS HERE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL LACK OF
OVERLAPPING SHEAR, BUOYANCY, AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT SUGGEST THAT
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF
PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THOUGH
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS MUCH WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH-WESTERN TEXAS SAW LITTLE IN WAY OF WETTING RAINFALL, THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
AID IN LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..THORNTON.. 09/21/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS ON
D2/TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY WET, A FEW POCKETS OF MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS AND
ERCS RANGING FROM THE 50-70TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEVADA
MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHTNING IGNITION.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
..THORNTON.. 09/21/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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