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LU9DCE > NEWS 20.09.26 19:03l 298 Lines 11358 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22465_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FFL<CS5NRA<CQ0PAX<GB7CAM<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260920/1615Z 22465@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN SEP 20 08:27:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN SEP 20 08:27:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN SEP 20 08:27:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN SEP 20 08:27:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM THE
OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AT MID-LEVELS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NEAR THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F, WHICH WILL ALLOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS MOVING FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA HAVE MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30
KNOTS, AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE.
ALTHOUGH A MIXED MODE IS EXPECTED, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT BECOME LOCALLY
FAVORABLE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD
BECOME MAXIMIZED IN THE EARLY EVENING, IF AN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT
CAN DEVELOP.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
DURING THE DAY FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE 50S F,
WHICH WILL ENABLE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM, CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THIS
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z HAVE MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM AROUND 40 KNOTS, AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...OZARKS/MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
AT MID-LEVELS, A SUBTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO, ALONG
WHICH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S F. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE
ALONG MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE MOIST
AXIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ANY SMALL
CLUSTER THAT CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW
(MONDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
TOMORROW (MONDAY). MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL
TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A LONGER WAVE UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON
THE CA COASTLINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES WILL ENCOURAGE THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT, FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S F, WITH LITTLE TO NO MLCINH GIVEN A MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST,
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO 1500-2000 J/KG OF TALL AND THIN MLCAPE. GIVEN MEDIOCRE
SHEAR PROFILES, MAINLY PULSE-CELLULAR TO MULTICELLULAR COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED, THE STRONGER OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE
OF CAUSING A FEW INSTANCES OF TREE/WIRE DAMAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHERE A
RELATIVELY GREATER NUMBER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP PER LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION AND ML/AI GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS...
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COLD FRONT, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TX, AMID A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR MEDIOCRE, AND GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, NO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED THIS OUTLOOK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT LOCALLY
STRONGER MULTICELLULAR STORMS POSSIBLE. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TOWARD
GREATER STORM COVERAGE, LOWER-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES (MAINLY FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL) MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 20, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS POISED TO AMPLIFY SOME ON TUESDAY, WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE PLAINS STATES AS POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGHS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER SOUTHWARD
FROM TX TO THE GULF COASTAL REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 1500+ J/KG OF TALL/THIN
MLCAPE, DRIVEN BY MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WILL BE PRESENT FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH, THE STRONGER
STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW WET
DOWNBURSTS, WITH ISOLATED TREE/WIRE DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 20, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MEANDERING UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THROUGH THE WEEK, A RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES, LIMITING THE SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. SOME MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVEN LEE TROUGHING.
HOWEVER, UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS WELL. AS SUCH, NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREATS SEEM APPARENT FOR THE CONUS DAYS 4-8 (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY).
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BOTH
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD AID IN SOME
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL, THE INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
..THORNTON.. 09/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS ON D2/MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL
D1/SUNDAY THROUGH D2/MONDAY WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO DRY FUELS AND
KEEP FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..THORNTON.. 09/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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