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LU9DCE > NEWS 19.09.26 19:33l 320 Lines 12582 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22397_LU9DCE
Read: DJ6UX
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-SEP
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260919/1615Z 22397@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT SEP 19 08:27:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT SEP 19 08:27:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT SEP 19 08:27:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT SEP 19 08:27:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 19, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY, THE MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, AS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
COMPLEX OF ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS
HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WITH SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. IN ADDITION, LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STEEP. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF A LINE SEGMENT CAN PERSIST AND
BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WHERE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY, AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F. THE MOISTURE WILL ENABLE MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON. WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 21Z IN EASTERN COLORADO HAVE 0-6 SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40
KNOT RANGE, WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA, BUT INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THERE.
...OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, ALONG WHICH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE AIRMASS, WHERE LOCALIZED SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOME MAXIMIZED. THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/19/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 19, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE WIND AND HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO, WITH SEVERE GUSTS ALSO LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW (SUNDAY). ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE OZARK VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
...SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PIVOT AROUND A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE AND TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL CONUS TOMORROW (SUNDAY). THESE
IMPULSES WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT, PRECEDED BY A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER, TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN STRONGER BUOYANCY IN
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE
A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SOME CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW THESE INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. NONETHELESS, GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO
THE 90S F, WITH 70 F DEWPOINTS, YIELDING 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE AMID
WANING INHIBITION. THIS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MEDIOCRE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY MERGE AND BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY, A SHORT-LIVED COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS
MAY DEVELOP, ACCOMPANIED BY A FOCUSED SEVERE GUST THREAT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK.
...PORTIONS OF MO INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALL
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PERIPHERY OF THE DECAYING UPPER RIDGE, FROM
THE OZARKS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THE CONVERGENCE OF UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO OVER 2000 J/KG. A FEW
OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR COMPLEXES MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN MAINLY 6 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MEDIOCRE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
...PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COLD FRONT, UPSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON, WILL ENCOURAGE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. NOTABLE VEERING FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALONG
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPOSPHERE, WILL RESULT IN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. GIVEN 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPERCELLS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/19/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 19, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES, WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO 1500+ J/KG OF TALL AND THIN
MLCAPE, A FEW WET DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/19/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 19, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN INITIALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN, CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY CONFINED WEST OF THE
ROCKIES, AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODEST AT BEST. AS A RESULT, THERE
ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS FOR AN ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CONUS FOR DAYS 4-8 (TUESDAY-SATURDAY).
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS....
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 10-20 MPH
OVERLAPPING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 25-30
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH A FEW MEMBERS MAINTAINING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT
OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT. AS SUCH, THE ELEVATED WAS TRIMMED DOWN TO
INCLUDE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25-30
PERCENT OVERLAPPING WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER WINDS BASED ON HREF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
..THORNTON.. 09/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ON
D2/SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD AID IN SOME
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL, EXPECTED INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
..THORNTON.. 09/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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