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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.07.25 10:33l 318 Lines 9292 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7254_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-JUL
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<VE3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 250722/0730Z 7254@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536
WW 536 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 220310Z - 221000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH
OTHER SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF MOBRIDGE SD TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FARGO ND. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 535...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25035.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535
WW 535 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 212135Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA, POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BILLINGS MT TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO SD. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25030.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0536 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0536 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0535 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP
TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT.
..WENDT..07/22/25
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109-
220340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER DAWSON
FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY
MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM
POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD
WHEATLAND WIBAUX
NDC007-011-033-087-220340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY
SLOPE
SDC019-063-093-220340-
SD
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1750
MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220210Z - 220415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THOUGH UNCERTAIN, SOME INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY/COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION. ANOTHER STORM HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE
TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. MLCAPE IS STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 4000
J/KG AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER, MLCIN IS ALSO STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
AS WELL. WITH LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS IN INTENSITY/UPSCALE GROWTH.
..WENDT/HART.. 07/22/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45869934 45109959 44640083 44370195 44940311 45520239
46030020 45869934
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 22, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ALSO THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
...PARTS OF MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
EVENING FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN SD. THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY
SHEARED, AND THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. SEE MCD 1748 FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
SHORT-TERM THREAT IN THIS AREA.
WITH TIME, A MODESTLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS SOMEWHERE FROM NORTHWEST SD INTO ND, THOUGH
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY REGARDING THE DETAILS. RATHER
STRONG CINH ACROSS NORTHWEST SD INTO SOUTHWEST ND MAY TEND TO DELAY
ANY ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HELP
TO SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS REGION. ANY
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR LARGER MCS THAT DEVELOPS COULD POSE A
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN ND, NORTHEAST SD, AND POTENTIALLY NORTHWEST MN.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, WITHIN A MODERATE
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DECREASING SHEAR WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT AND THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS BOTH NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST KS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND, BUT
SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST WITH
THIS CLUSTER THROUGH THE EVENING. SEE MCD 1749 FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH DUSK FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST TX, WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.
..DEAN.. 07/22/2025
READ MORE
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JAVA - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 4.1
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