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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.12.23 04:03l 126 Lines 4558 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3983_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-DEC23
Path: DB0FHN<DB0PM<OE2XZR<OE6XPE<DB0ERF<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<
VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 231219/0100Z 3983@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN DEC 17 02:57:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN DEC 17 02:57:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 2331
MD 2331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND KEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170159Z - 170430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ASHORE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE NEED FOR A
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN PRECEDE
THE APPROACHING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY. A CONFLUENCE BAND
PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS COMPRISED OF CONVECTION
THAT HAS PERCOLATED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND IS
POISED TO MOVE ASHORE SOMETIME BEFORE MIDNIGHT EST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER TBW AND MFL DEPICTING LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BARELY EXCEEDING 5 C/KM. DESPITE LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS,
BUOYANCY HAS BEEN MEAGER SO FAR, THOUGH GRADUAL INCREASES IN
INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TONIGHT.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW, WITH THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY
LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. AS SUCH, IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS OR TORNADOES TO OCCUR IF A
PERSISTENT UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND INGEST ANY AVAILABLE
SURFACE-BASED, UNSTABLE PARCELS. AS SUCH, CONDITIONS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 12/17/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 24618209 24878158 25198122 25618137 26378205 27288262
28458282 29388200 29538127 29238091 28188054 26878006
25978004 25268010 24788047 24528111 24488169 24618209
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SPC DEC 17, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2023
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS.
...01Z UPDATE...
EASTERN GULF BASIN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE FL GULF COAST AFTER 06Z, THEN ADVANCE
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE BY SUNRISE. 00Z SOUNDINGS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US HAVE YET TO DESTABILIZE MATERIALLY, BUT
WEAK BUOYANCY IS NOTED AT MFL WHERE SBCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG. HOWEVER, STRONG SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND A MARKED INCREASE IN THE
LLJ IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING WITH 850MB FLOW LIKELY TO EXCEED
60-80KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST CONVECTION IS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE/SURFACE LOW, AT LEAST 100MI WEST
OF THE PENINSULA. WITH TIME, BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT
DEEPER UPDRAFTS/LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP WITH CONVECTION OVER LAND.
SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM 20Z, AND DAMAGING GUSTS
AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
..DARROW.. 12/17/2023
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